Is there something I am missing?
With oil or in general anything; predicting the future is complex; although there are algorithms and experts and theories; they are often not accurate. Else everyone would have become millionaire.
If the market sees the prices of Oil to reduce; it could be due to various reasons that the market believes in. Note I say believes in, does not mean it is correct. Only time will tell if it was right or wrong.
Some of the reasons could be; speculating / simplified / opinion
- Curbs in Iran will get lifted. That is one of the reason for higher oil price. Unrest in Venezuela can go away to stable political environment.
- Fracting can result in larger oils. There could be forecasts of some oil reservoirs being found. Takes few years or a decade to develop and can add.
- Alternative technology in Batteries can reduce the dependency on Oil for automobile.
- Various alternatives in Solar / Wind can reduce other needs for Oil
- Other such reasons.