Consider two stocks "CG" and "DIV" that perform equally well, but the difference is:
- "CG" pays no dividends and all its performance comes from it raising its ticker price (capital gain);
- While "DIV" pays out all its gains as franked dividends while its ticker price remains constant
Which would be a better investment after tax, assuming we sell after 1 year?
Note: This is more than just an academic question, because there exist "accumulating" ETFs that convert underlying dividends into capital gains, but loses the franking credits. e.g., SAUS
Here's my attempt to answer this question
Let's define some variables first:
g_cg = capital gains on stock CG
g_div = dividends received on stock DIV
gat_cg = capital gains after tax on stock CG
gat_div = dividends after tax on stock DIV
r = marginal tax rate with medicare levy (e.g., 0.47 for top tax bracket)
f = ratio of dividend that's franked (can assume 1 for best-case scenario)
fr = 0.3 (company tax rate = withheld tax on franked dividend)
So we want to see whether gat_cg
or gat_div
is higher
gat_cg
is trivial to calculate, since after holding the stock for 1 year, only half the capital gains are taxable (CGT discount):
gat_cg = g_cg - g_cg / 2 * r
= g_cg * (1 - r / 2)
gat_div
is more difficult, having to solve a system of equations:
gbt_div = taxable income ("before tax") from stock DIV
fc_div = franking credits from stock DIV's dividends
gbt_div = g_div + fc_div (taxable income includes franking credits)
fc_div / (f * g_div + fc_div) = fr (franking credits should match the company tax rate)
gat_div = g_div - gbt_div * r + fc_div (tax paid on the dividend is offset by franking credits)
= g_div * (1 - r) * (1 - fr * (1 - f)) / (1 - fr)
= g_div * (1 - r) * 10 / 7 (with fr = 0.3 and f = 1)
Using some common marginal tax rates with g_cg = g_div = 1
:
r | gat_cg | gat_div (f = 100%) | gat_div (f = 80%) |
---|---|---|---|
18% | 0.91 | 1.171 | 1.101 |
32% | 0.84 | 0.971 | 0.913 |
39% | 0.805 | 0.871 | 0.819 |
47% | 0.765 | 0.757 | 0.712 |
From this, I can conclude that 100% franked dividends results in better return on investment after tax than capital gains at all except the highest marginal tax rate of 47%.
Is my calculation correct?