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Consider two stocks "CG" and "DIV" that perform equally well, but the difference is:

  • "CG" pays no dividends and all its performance comes from it raising its ticker price (capital gain);
  • While "DIV" pays out all its gains as franked dividends while its ticker price remains constant

Which would be a better investment after tax, assuming we sell after 1 year?

Note: This is more than just an academic question, because there exist "accumulating" ETFs that convert underlying dividends into capital gains, but loses the franking credits. e.g., SAUS


Here's my attempt to answer this question

Let's define some variables first:

g_cg = capital gains on stock CG
g_div = dividends received on stock DIV

gat_cg = capital gains after tax on stock CG
gat_div = dividends after tax on stock DIV

r = marginal tax rate with medicare levy (e.g., 0.47 for top tax bracket)
f = ratio of dividend that's franked (can assume 1 for best-case scenario)
fr = 0.3 (company tax rate = withheld tax on franked dividend)

So we want to see whether gat_cg or gat_div is higher

gat_cg is trivial to calculate, since after holding the stock for 1 year, only half the capital gains are taxable (CGT discount):

gat_cg = g_cg - g_cg / 2 * r
       = g_cg * (1 - r / 2)

gat_div is more difficult, having to solve a system of equations:

gbt_div = taxable income ("before tax") from stock DIV
fc_div = franking credits from stock DIV's dividends

gbt_div = g_div + fc_div                 (taxable income includes franking credits)
fc_div / (f * g_div + fc_div) = fr       (franking credits should match the company tax rate)
gat_div = g_div - gbt_div * r + fc_div   (tax paid on the dividend is offset by franking credits)
        = g_div * (1 - r) * (1 - fr * (1 - f)) / (1 - fr)
        = g_div * (1 - r) * 10 / 7       (with fr = 0.3 and f = 1)

Using some common marginal tax rates with g_cg = g_div = 1:

r gat_cg gat_div (f = 100%) gat_div (f = 80%)
18% 0.91 1.171 1.101
32% 0.84 0.971 0.913
39% 0.805 0.871 0.819
47% 0.765 0.757 0.712

From this, I can conclude that 100% franked dividends results in better return on investment after tax than capital gains at all except the highest marginal tax rate of 47%.
Is my calculation correct?

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