I currently have unvested restricted stock units with my employer. It's a very stable publicly-traded company.
I received a job offer from a private company hoping to IPO in the next few years and part of the offer is options. The strike price is close to 50% of the share price as of the last investor valuation. The company projects anywhere from ~ 10x growth in the value of those options after IPO.
My question is: How does one go about valuing stock options? What should I be considering when trying to decide how much of my RSU's to give up in exchange for stock options of a private company.
My current thinking is: I can't. The RSU's are almost a sure thing, provided I remain with my current employer. Stock options require me to fork over a lot of money to buy them, I cannot easily resell until after IPO, and the strike price becomes the break even point, so if the value cuts in half, it's all a waste.
The closest answer/advice I can find is this answer: https://money.stackexchange.com/a/38718/9191