Given a compound interest formula for an investment of FV = PV(1 + r/n)^nt, with a different APR for each year and a timeline of 2.5 years, how could this be combined with an inflation formula of R = (1 + r) / (1 + i) - 1? Would the first be plugged into the second, other way round or does it not matter? Would the non-full year affect inflation?
2 Answers
To handle the partial year, one way is to start with rates compounded annually, so if your given rates are, say 4.5, 5 & 4 % annual nominal interest compounded monthly then the rates r
compounded annually are . . .
r1 = (1 + 0.045/12)^12 - 1 = 0.0459398
r2 = (1 + 0.05/12)^12 - 1 = 0.0511619
r3 = (1 + 0.04/12)^12 - 1 = 0.0407415
With inflation i
at 6% compounded annually the longhand calculation for pv
is
pv = 1000
y1 = pv (1 + r1)/(1 + i)
y2 = y1 (1 + r2)/(1 + i)
y2.5 = y2 (1 + r3)^(1/2)/(1 + i)^(1/2) = 969.579
So, in one step
The same result is achieved using the monthly compounded rates:
pv = 1000
y1 = pv (1 + 0.045/12)^12/(1 + i)
y2 = y1 (1 + 0.05/12)^12/(1 + i)
y2.5 = y2 (1 + 0.04/12)^6/(1 + i)^(1/2) = 969.579
Either way you get the same result.
Inflation does not affect future value. If you want to see the effect of inflation of that future value, you would just discount it by the inflation rate:
So your overall "real" return would be
FV(real) = PV(1+r1)(1+r2)(1+(r3)/2)
------------------------
(1+i)^2.5
So in your example, the "r" in the inflation equation would be the total nominal return over those 2.5 years, but you would use an exponent of 2.5 for the inflation effect in the denomitator.
Would the non-full year affect inflation?
Yes. Inflation is a continuous phenomenon, so you would count the half year, which is done by using the exponent 2.5
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Inflation has a different rate every year too, though, right?– RonJohnCommented Oct 27, 2023 at 20:51
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1It does, yes - but OP seemed to be using a constant. If you wanted to use different annual inflation numbers you could put them all in the denominator (
(1+i1)(1+i2)(1+i3/2)
). Commented Oct 27, 2023 at 21:40 -
What would r1, r2 represent if compounding period is less than year? For monthly compounding would (1 + r1) be replaced with (1 + r1 / 12)^12? And (1 + (r3 / 2)) would become (1 + r3 / 12)^6? Commented Oct 28, 2023 at 10:02
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@RonJohn expected inflation can be turned into a curve to do the same maths– MD-TechCommented Oct 28, 2023 at 13:55
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@user125687 sure you can use whatever compounding frequency matches the inflation rate you use. I use annually because that's the most common way inflation is measured (last 12 months, or YoY) Commented Oct 28, 2023 at 14:29