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Aug 28, 2017 at 22:38 comment added JBentley @TheThunderChimp That's certainly correct in general, but bear in mind that the insurance companies deal with averages. They do their best to narrow down their risk model to match your circumstances, but it's still an average. Since you know yourself individually and the insurance company does not, there can be cases where insurance is a winning bet if you know you happen to be more likely to claim than the average person in your category (e.g. are more careless than most). Your approach of quantifying the risk is correct in either case though.
Aug 28, 2017 at 16:24 history edited mhoran_psprep CC BY-SA 3.0
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Aug 28, 2017 at 16:11 comment added Pertinax Third party insurance aside, because the price of insurance is 20% of the boat value, I'm willing to take the risk and not buy insurance if there's less than 20% chance of a total loss. The risk is almost certainly lower, or the insurance company would on average not be making any money.
Aug 28, 2017 at 16:08 history answered mhoran_psprep CC BY-SA 3.0