I think everything in your case is just simply missing one important rule of how credit works.
Essentially, your MIL cannot get a loan. You can. YOU ARE MAKING HER A LARGE LOAN THAT SHE CANNOT GET HERSELFYou are making her a large loan that she cannot get for herself. That is all. That is the essence of what this deal is. It is not without interest - she makes a financial contribution toward your son, you get the deal in 2 years assuming she doesn't default (she will), etc.
Imagine it this way: you are sitting in the dealership with the dealer and your MIL. She wants a loan to pay for the car. The dealership says, "you are way not credit worthy." So your MIL says, "why doesn't my son-in-law take out the loan instead?" Now the dealership says, sure, that's fine. From the dealer's standpoint, every other part of your arrangement is irrelevant - boring, even. The only magic trick is in who takes the loan out, no other difference.
You're letting your MIL pull a car out of her sleeve like a magician, and in taking the deal you're believing her.
This sentence:
I am pretty sure that the ex-MIL will not let me down (I've loaned her large sums of money before and she always promptly repaid).
is everything. You're making a rather large bet that the things that can go wrong in two years - including any situation involving your wife's welfare - are rather miniscule. And furthermore, that the few times she's paid you back - that did NOT convince banks and dealer she is more creditworthy - justifies her good creditworthiness.
Is the interest worth it? Do you really believe that your MIL needs to wring a car out of you before she would consider contributing to her grandson's well-being (which is, essentially, the interest)?
But wait, it's NOT everything.
Her daughter (my ex-wife) would drive it for 2 years and then turn the car over to our son.
Even if your MIL is creditworthy, the woman you described as follows:
Her daughter, though, is a loose cannon.
Will be holding and returning the collateral in this deal. Things she can do include:
- destroy it for fun because she's mad at you for something, with no legal way to retaliate or punish or hold her accountable
- anything you would do with a car you knew for a fact you would not have in 2 years
So I'm arguing two points:
- That you're getting the wool pulled over your eyes in your high estimation of your MIL's creditworthiness, because you missed how credit was moved in this situation.
- That you're missing the fact that the collateral on the loan belongs to someone who you would not trust in a loan.
Obviously my opinion on this is clear. I hope I did a decent job of explaining where the components of this deal (credit, interest, collateral) play out in the eyes of a dealer or bank, and get lost in the mechanics of the rules you worked out with your family.