Say I calculate the 200-day EMA of a stock to be $25. The stock currently trades at $22. I see from the historical price action that it has touched $25 and failed to break it two times in the past 4 months.
Based on this information, is there a way to conclude if the $25 supportresistance is a strong or a weak supportresistance, i.e. what is the probability that the stock will respect the supportresistance this time around?
I understand I can use more technical analysis tools to confirm the supportresistance level, but just based on the EMA, is there any way to predict the strength of the supportresistance level? I heard that if the supportresistance has been tested more than x # of times, it means it is a strong supportresistance. But I also hear that the more times a supportresistance is tested, the weaker it becomes. Any thoughts?