There are few different things to consider:

1. Deductible : Since you have an HSA you are probably on a High Deductible insurance plan. Take a look at your HSA balance and divide by your max out of pocket deductible. That's the number of years you are covered for the "worst case" scenario. I'd say you want at least ten, but 100 years would be excessive. Depends of course on you own risk comfort.
2. Retirement : health care cost will likely be the single largest expense in retirement and unfortunately it's the hardest to predict and find good data on. A recent fidelity study put the average life time out-of-pocket cost for a couple into the $300.000 range. Other studies quote about $5000-$7000 in today's dollar per year per person on Medicare. Health Care inflation is currently significantly higher than regular inflation, which complicates the math further. Still, it's not unreasonable to have several hundred thousand dollars squirreled away for retirement health care
3. Coronavirus and shifts in the Health Care system: This is pure speculation at this point, but chances are that the current crisis will have an impact on the way Health Care works and gets paid for in the future. The most drastic change would be a single payer system (as most of the civilized world has) but it's very hard to predict how an HSA would roll over into this. In any case the current system is stretched thin already. The average health care spent consumes more than 40% of average social security income and it is getting worse quickly.
4. Investment: HSA contributions are pre-tax money. In most cases that alone will outweigh any potential investment return. Assuming there is no high interest debt, I would recommend to first max out pre-tax retirement contributions, then pre-tax college savings and then pre-tax HSA. If you have other highly attractive investment vehicle you can consider those too. Stocks are cheap at the moment, although very risky and likely to be volatile for a while.

Looking at the actual medical risk is probably not that helpful. Statistics don't really help if it's just you and your family. Would you be doing anything differently if you knew the risk for a major health disaster is 0.1% instead of 0.2 % ?

There are few different things to consider:

1. Deductible : Since you have an HSA you are probably on a High Deductible insurance plan. Take a look at your HSA balance and divide by your max out of pocket deductible. That's the number of years you are covered for the "worst case" scenario. I'd say you want at least ten, but 100 years would be excessive. Depends of course on you own risk comfort.
2. Retirement : health care cost will likely be the single largest expense in retirement and unfortunately it's the hardest to predict and find good data on. A recent fidelity study put the average life time out-of-pocket cost for a couple into the $300.000 range. Other studies quote about $5000-$7000 in today's dollar per year per person on Medicare. Health Care inflation is currently significantly higher than regular inflation, which complicates the math further. Still, it's not unreasonable to have several hundred thousand dollars squirreled away for retirement health care
3. Coronavirus and shifts in the Health Care system: This is pure speculation at this point, but chances are that the current crisis will have an impact on the way Health Care works and gets paid for in the future. The most drastic change would be a single payer system (as many other countries in the civilized world already have) but it's very hard to predict how an HSA would roll over into this. One of the more plausible scenarios would be to allow a roll over into an IRA but that's all a wild guess at the moment. In any case the current system is stretched thin already. The average retiree spends more than 40% of their social security income on health care and it is getting worse quickly.
4. Investment: HSA contributions are pre-tax money. In most cases that alone will outweigh any potential investment return. Assuming there is no high interest debt, I would recommend to first max out pre-tax retirement contributions, then pre-tax college savings and then pre-tax HSA. If you have other highly attractive investment vehicle you can consider those too. Stocks are cheap at the moment, although very risky and likely to be volatile for a while.

Looking at the actual medical risk is probably not that helpful. Statistics don't really help if it's just you and your family. Would you be doing anything differently if you knew the risk for a major health disaster is 0.1% instead of 0.2 % ?

There are few different things to consider:

1. Deductible : Since you have an HSA you are probably on a High Deductible insurance plan. Take a look at your HSA balance and divide by your max out of pocket deductible. That's the number of years you are covered for the "worst case" scenario. I'd say you want at least ten, but 100 years would be excessive. Depends of course on you own risk comfort.
2. Retirement : health care cost will likely be the single largest expense in retirement and unfortunately it's the hardest to predict and find good data on. A recent fidelity study put the average life time out-of-pocket cost for a couple into the $300.000 range. Other studies quote about $5000-$6000 in today's money per year per person on Medicare. Health Care inflation is currently significantly higher than regular inflation, which complicates the math further. Still, it's not unreasonable to have several hundred thousand dollars squirreled away for retirement health care
3. Coronavirus and shifts in the Health Care system: This is pure speculation at this point, but chances are that the current crisis will have an impact on the way Health Care works and gets paid for in the future. The most drastic change would be a single payer system (as most of the civilized world has) but it's very hard to predict how an HSA would roll over into this.
4. Investment: HSA contributions are pre-tax money. In most cases that alone will outweigh any potential investment return. Assuming there is no high interest debt, I would recommend to first max out pre-tax retirement contributions, then pre-tax college savings and then pre-tax HSA. If you have other highly attractive investment vehicle you can consider those too. Stocks are cheap at the moment, although very risky and likely to be volatile for a while.

Looking at the actual medical risk is probably not that helpful. Statistics don't really help if it's just you and your family. Would you be doing anything differently if you knew the risk for a major health disaster is 0.1% instead of 0.2 % ?

There are few different things to consider:

1. Deductible : Since you have an HSA you are probably on a High Deductible insurance plan. Take a look at your HSA balance and divide by your max out of pocket deductible. That's the number of years you are covered for the "worst case" scenario. I'd say you want at least ten, but 100 years would be excessive. Depends of course on you own risk comfort.
2. Retirement : health care cost will likely be the single largest expense in retirement and unfortunately it's the hardest to predict and find good data on. A recent fidelity study put the average life time out-of-pocket cost for a couple into the $300.000 range. Other studies quote about $5000-$7000 in today's dollar per year per person on Medicare. Health Care inflation is currently significantly higher than regular inflation, which complicates the math further. Still, it's not unreasonable to have several hundred thousand dollars squirreled away for retirement health care
3. Coronavirus and shifts in the Health Care system: This is pure speculation at this point, but chances are that the current crisis will have an impact on the way Health Care works and gets paid for in the future. The most drastic change would be a single payer system (as most of the civilized world has) but it's very hard to predict how an HSA would roll over into this. In any case the current system is stretched thin already. The average health care spent consumes more than 40% of average social security income and it is getting worse quickly.
4. Investment: HSA contributions are pre-tax money. In most cases that alone will outweigh any potential investment return. Assuming there is no high interest debt, I would recommend to first max out pre-tax retirement contributions, then pre-tax college savings and then pre-tax HSA. If you have other highly attractive investment vehicle you can consider those too. Stocks are cheap at the moment, although very risky and likely to be volatile for a while.

Looking at the actual medical risk is probably not that helpful. Statistics don't really help if it's just you and your family. Would you be doing anything differently if you knew the risk for a major health disaster is 0.1% instead of 0.2 % ?