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This artile: The Run-Up Before Ex-Dividend Date about the may be of use for you. I am not advocating or confirming the conclusions but the logic is relevant:

This article: The Run-Up Before Ex-Dividend Date about the may be of use for you. I am not advocating or confirming the conclusions but the logic is relevant:

I've emphasized the key phrase here: "about equal" which is the core question you are asking. I did a little hunting and came across this paper:

The results of this empirical study indicate that the stock prices move upward significantly after dividend announcements. Abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from the market model are statistically significantly revealed. The results confirm dividend signalling theory as the dividend announcements have significant impact on share prices.T2 t=T1

I've emphasized the key phrase here: "about equal" which gets at the core question you are asking. I did a little hunting and came across this paper:

The results of this empirical study indicate that the stock prices move upward significantly after dividend announcements. Abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from the market model are statistically significantly revealed. The results confirm dividend signalling theory as the dividend announcements have significant impact on share prices.

So if we believe this (i.e. we believe in basic economics principles), if we hold a stock through the period before declaration through the ex-dividend date, the issuance of the dividend should have minimal impact on the value of the stock. In other words, we end up where we started plus the dividend.

So what as an investor can you do. If you believe the market is efficient, whenever you buy or sell the stock, you are getting a fair price. Let's assume you do or, like me, you think it's mostly true. I'll also assume the US. YMMV for other countries.

If we believe this (i.e. we believe in basic economics principles), if we hold a stock through the period before declaration through the ex-dividend date, the issuance of the dividend should have minimal impact on the value of the stock. In other words, we end up where we started plus the dividend.

What as an investor can you do? If you believe the market is efficient, whenever you buy or sell the stock, you are getting a fair price. Let's assume you do or, like me, you think it's mostly true. I'll also assume the US. YMMV for other countries.