SafeFastExpressive
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Member for 7 years, 9 months
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Last seen more than a month ago
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AZ, USA
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How to access the Expert Market as a US citizen?
@ZeroPhase Buffett isn't outperforming because he doesn't understand computers, but because he has the largest portfolio in history that limits him to buying only mega cap stocks. When we discuss the expert market, we are talking about the Buffett of the 50s and 60s when he was averaging 40% annualized buying illiquid stocks overlooked by the market.
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What is the point of "earnest money"?
When I sold my home in Arizona during 2021 I received three offers, all with deposits of roughly 1% of the purchase price. The first two offers backed out within 1-2 weeks, it seemed clear they were making deposits on multiple properties to hold them knowing they were fully refundable and then canceling when they got something they liked better. The last one waited until inspection and almost backed out because that was the final point they could get their deposit back, but fortunately they completed the purchase.
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Annuity money is not insured?
This shouldn't be the top answer. It doesn't tell how to determine if the insurance company's state provides insurance on your annuity. And it doesn't tell you how to check AM Best to determine the insurer's credit rating, which will go a long way towards determining whether you should be concerned.
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If he wanted control of the company, why didn't Elon Musk buy 51% of Twitter shares instead of 100%?
@Barmar "progressive" proposals are almost always voted down by the majority of investors, not just a majority of shares. This is because many shareholders view them as at worst, reducing the value of their shares, and at best, serving to distract management from their core duty of increasing the value of their shares.
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Why don't unbanked people use cryptocurrency?
Crypto is underrated as a platform for fraud, theft and ponzi schemes.
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Where does the value of money go during inflation?
@IMSoP How does a "shortage of value" cause inflation? Assume there were only two goods in the world, Food, and Energy. If a failed harvest drives up the price of Food wouldn't it also drive down the price of Energy, since consumers would have less money to spend on Energy? Is this not the reason that Milton Friedman said inflation was exclusively a monetary phenomena (and the same theory he won the Nobel Prize for?
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Sell our home or rent it?
Home price increases have been fantastic the last 20 years primarily due to an unsustainably low interest rates. Demand has plummeted as interest rates rise. Prices have yet to fall, as inventory is as tight as demand is low. It may be that low inventory is a permanent situation and that price decreases are a thing of the past, but I'm skeptical. If current inflation rates last into next year mortgage rates need to return to 1970s levels of 10%+, which will be a very strong weight on prices.
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Why do we ONLY care about the future of companies like Netflix? It was very profitable in the past
@Jack The core theory of value investing is that a company is worth its future stream of earnings discounted for time plus existing net asset values. The reasoning is that management will distribute earnings as dividends, or by buying back shares (increasing your percentage ownership of current and future earnings), or reinvesting it at reasonable returns. If run by a CEO who throws away earnings in terrible investments or a controlling shareholder who diverts earnings to their own pockets, not true. But those are rare situations.
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We're in an asset bubble currently, what can I do about it?
@AnoE Another problem with discounting the indications of a bubble and referencing EMH is Michael Burry. The average person won't understand EMH, but there is a good chance they've seen "The Big Short" and they'll say Michael Burry saw a bubble and made billions from shorting it. What they won't see is the thousands of hours of extensive research Michael did to justify his trade, and even then his investors nearly shut him down over it.
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How can I determine if my stock picking performance was due to luck or due to skill?
@SwissFrank First you assume beating the market by 40% in any single year is merely a coinflip simply by using leverage. It's not. By using leverage you greatly increase your downside risk, and none of your 1024 investors will last a half dozen years, let alone a dozen. But even more importantly, your entire argument is a straw horse because Buffett has never used leverage. You've constantly shifted your arguments and thrown out easily disprovable assertions (Buffett only invests in a single type of company, his methods only work in a single era when he has a 65 year track record, etc)
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How can I determine if my stock picking performance was due to luck or due to skill?
@SwissFrank Beta is not leverage, the fact that you confuse the two is proof of how weak your grasp of these topics are. You haven't explained how a year can't be a trial or what the trials should be. Irregardless you can't refute that Buffett's results so far exceed the markets that they can never be explained by chance.
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How can I determine if my stock picking performance was due to luck or due to skill?
@SwissFrank Again, read the essay SuperInvestors of Graham-Doddsvile, it's available on the internet from Columbia University. Try to debunk that.
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How can I determine if my stock picking performance was due to luck or due to skill?
@SwissFrank Again, you've got a lot to learn about Buffett. Beating the market 39 of 40 years by luck is one in 27.5 Billion attempts. Beating the market by 15% a year for 40 years by luck is one in trillions. That 40 years included dozens of bull markets & bear markets, bubbles, inflation & deflation. He invested in massively diverse sets of companies including penny stocks, liquidations, growth companies, financial companies, insurance, transportation, energy etc, etc. Leverage? None. Pool Size? Not billions or trillions. If you can't accept Buffett as proof, you can't accept anything.
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How can I determine if my stock picking performance was due to luck or due to skill?
@SwissFrank You should really read more, especially about Buffett since you don't seem to know his methods well. He started investing professionally in the mid 1950s and has invested in a huge variety of businesses over the last 65 years. He's changed and grown with the times and become a better investor. His annual investor letters layout the entirety of his investing history and methods, and they are freely available back to the 1970s on BerkshireHathaway.com. You would learn a great deal reading them, and don't worry, they aren't boring, they are extremely readable and entertaining.
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How can I determine if my stock picking performance was due to luck or due to skill?
@SwissFrank There is never a time value investing isn't a good methodology. Best example is the internet bubble, but it just led good value investors to hold cash and wait. When the bubble burst, they had huge opportunities. Read the essay "The Superinvestors of Graham-Doddsville", which blows coin-flip theory out of the water. Buffett beat the market every single year for his first two dozen years by huge margins. Returning 20-30% more than the market in a single year isn't 50-50, it's more like 10-1 against. Buffett did that every year, which is trillions of trillions to one against luck.