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You cannot. You do not know if the price of gold will go up or down, if the stock market will go up or down. You do not know if you will get a raise or you will get fired, if you will get a job offer at a better paid position. And that is without taking into account personal events, like winning the lottery, having to pay for a car repair, wanting to move to ...


Comparing an investment to a typical alternative investment is called hurdle rate analysis (or discount rate analysis). Choose a hurdle rate and then run the analysis to see how the investment compares to that hurdle rate.


Have I made a good investment or I have cost myself opportunity? A five year increase (presuming you held it until November 2021) of 15% computes to a 2.83% CAGR (compound annual growth rate). That's... low for a stock. Even with COVID, the S&P500 has yielded a 14.23% CAGR from Nov 2016 until now. However, with that low growth, I'd ask what dividends ...

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