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After prolonged research on finance and investing I'm about ready to start putting money into actual investment products for a retirement fund down the line. And for a number of reasons I've decided on TD E-Series.

The kicker here is that in about two month's time I'll be able to make an annual payment on my mortgage for up to 20% of it's value (I can put down roughly 7%).

I'm also aware that the stock market seems to be in a bubble these days, and I keep hearing inklings of a recession within the next number of years (although there is obviously no guarantee of this happening).

So my central question is: would it be wise to start setting aside a portion of the money I could invest in E-Series or my mortgage now, and wait until a downturn to enter the market? Or should I start investing in E-Series now. Or alternatively, maybe just put everything into the mortgage until the bubble bursts?

closed as primarily opinion-based by Mike Scott, Pete B., Nathan L, Chris W. Rea, Dheer Sep 8 '18 at 1:47

Many good questions generate some degree of opinion based on expert experience, but answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions, rather than facts, references, or specific expertise. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

  • What's the interest rate on your mortgage? If you didn't have a mortgage would you borrow money to invest in the market when the hypothetical bubble bursts? – D Stanley Sep 7 '18 at 19:15
  • My mortgage rate is 2.85%. I guess the central question there is whether these investment products are going to out-perform my mortgage rate. I think the answer is yes. But the question is also whether I should just start investing in E-Series now, or wait until later to enter the market – Canadian Coder Sep 7 '18 at 19:20
  • @mcraen - The other central question is what happens if the bubble pops and your investment products under perform your mortgage rate. How will you feel then? The correct "what should I do now" answer will be known at some date in the future :->) – Bob Baerker Sep 8 '18 at 0:30
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the central question there is whether these investment products are going to out-perform my mortgage rate.

Most likely, and the longer your investment horizon the more probability that it will earn more. There will be up years and down-years, but there are very few 5-year down periods and even fewer down 10-year periods.

the question is also whether I should just start investing in E-Series now, or wait until later to enter the market

There's no way to know, but "timing the market" is shown to not be an effective long-term strategy. If you are investing for the long-term (20+ years) and investing periodically over that time then when you start won't make much difference. Simply having a plan and following it (meaning invest regularly) will work no matter when you start.

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