Converting British Pounds to USD or AUD [closed]

Question

Given the current state of the economy and the future out look, what would be the best option for someone who has to move pounds to either AUD or USD? What would be the advantages or disadvantages of either? I am an Australian national currently living in the US and will eventually end up back in aus.

Answer 1

Unfortunately it is absolutely impossible to guess which way the currency pairs will move.

Any opinion, whatsoever, you are given (here or elsewhere) is purely opinion.

Here's a long term chart ...

You could easily argue it's heading down, or you could easily argue it's heading up.

It's important to realize that in any opinion you see, the rationale for that guess will be based on one of two things:

Either so-called "fundamental" issues, or so-called "technical" issues.

1. "fundamental" rationales are things like "the population is changing so..." "because of Uranium..." "due to the pipeline..." "with factories closing...".

These are sheer guesses, and - moreover - any causality is a sheer guess.

Similarly if someone gives you

2. "technical" opinions are based on the charts, i.e., based on price and volume history. So, something like "we're near a double-top!" or "volume has peaked so that ..." etc.

These are sheer guesses, and - moreover - any causality is a sheer guess.

It's absolutely impossible to know.

BTW IMO the AUD/USD pair is particularly "tricky"; it's a pair that "experts" and TV hosts often get wrong and that often moves contrary to noisy predictions. (Ask any active currency trader this, they'll tell you it's a tricky pair.) Tough one!