Is there a theory about what typically happens to some markets when a country goes to war? If yes, should a passive portfolio be rebalanced accordingly? For example industrial metals.

  • 1
    You can invest in military suppliers... Whether you should is something you have to decide for yourself.
    – keshlam
    Sep 18, 2016 at 20:35
  • Best to invest in companies that don't have their assets physically within an enemy country. Oh, and try and guess which ones wont have their assets bombed to oblivion.
    – Dale M
    Sep 19, 2016 at 5:07

2 Answers 2


At a risk of stating the obvious: a passive portfolio doesn't try to speculate on such matters.

  • 1
    That's what I was also thinking, but historically it sometimes takes decade(s) to recover, which is within the resolution of passive investing,
    – Sparkler
    Sep 19, 2016 at 2:36

Normally, in a war everybody suffers and the entire economy goes down. Military contractors do better than average, but the average sucks. The way to take advantage of knowing a war is coming is to leave as soon as possible.

There are strategic materials that can become valuable in a war, but such investments are generally very specialized and not something an ordinary investor would be in a position to exploit.

The most profitable businesses in war are food, oil, and ammunition.

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