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For the past 4 months, Credit Karma has been saying my approval odds for the Amex EveryDay Card are "very good". I have applied twice for said card and been rejected both times.

My credit score is 696. 100% on time payments in full. Highest credit utilization has been 35%. Oldest age of account is 2 years if student loans are counted and if not then since February 2016. 3 recent inquiries.

Assuming that Credit Karma's predictions (or those of other monitoring services) are honest best estimates (and not simply marketing eye-candy with no statistical rigor behind them), why might a credit issuer come to a different risk conclusion?

  • approval odds for the amex every day card are very good Did they say you will be approved for the card ? And applied twice, why ? Don't do it again. – DumbCoder Sep 15 '16 at 10:36
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    Have you asked AMEX for more detail? Checked your credit history for errors? – Karen Sep 15 '16 at 13:24
  • Call the reconsideration number. – quid Sep 15 '16 at 16:51
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Credit Karma is not intimately aware of all of the underwriting guidelines at American Express. It's just a third party service that tracks credit. Its data roughly knows what people's credit looked like when they apply (because the inquiry will appear) then it knows if a card is issued (because the credit line will appear). From that Credit Karma has something resembling an estimated approval calculation, but it's not like anyone at Credit Karma sat down with an American Express underwriter to learn the ins and outs of specific approval.

With all of this in mind, why are you focused on that particular American Express card? There are plenty of other cards with great benefits and rewards programs.

Have you talked to American Express? Typically credit card companies have a reconsideration staff. Call American Express and have a chat. You might have too much available credit line compared to your stated income. They might just want you to confirm something in your credit report.

An anecdote for you. For my most recent Chase card I was soft-declined (we need more time to review your application), which I thought was very odd. So I called Chase and was asked a number of questions about my employment. While she didn't explicitly say it, I think the issue was that I listed my new employer and income number on my application. My new employer was never on a Chase application before and also wasn't previously on my credit report. These two nuances threw up a red flag such that they needed to talk to me before issuing the card.

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Ask Credit Karma what good means. If it means that 70% of the people similar to you will get the card, then there is a 30% chance you won't.

While there may be some randomness to the approval process, there may be little movement in your odds after only a few months. So multiple applications may not make it more likely you will be approved.

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Credit Karma does not provide you with exact analysis for you. It provides overall, all the applications, which are good chances of getting credit card. For Amex, i would think,

  1. Your current Credit Score
  2. Credit Limit
  3. Current Balance
  4. Credit Limit Utilized
  5. Age of Credithistory (First the card is open)
  6. Number of enquiries in last 2 years.

if you have done an enquiry, then do not apply the same card for 1 year.

  • All they said was that the odds were good, not that they were certain.... – keshlam Sep 15 '16 at 16:20
  • Two of your criteria are not likely to be major factors to the issuer. First, inquiries don't stay on your credit report for more than two years, and most fall away in as little as six months, so 5 years is not an accurate statement. Second, age is not a significant factor. I know a number of people in their late teens and early 20's with Amex cards. It's all about creditworthiness, which is a factor of the other elements you cited, plus residential stability (how long you've lived at your current address) and your employment and income status. Credit Karma doesn't know the last two. – Daniel Anderson Sep 16 '16 at 15:48

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