I'm doing some "retail forex" by (for example) exiting hydrocarbon-dependent currency and entering one weakened by parting the political union but ought to bounce back. As you see, I'm basing my strategies on fundamental analysis and it works but only within 1-2 month timeframe minimum. However, I retrospect a number of 1-2 week trends which could bring me some profit if carefully planned. So my question is just as in title: which technical indicators are suitable for medium-term strategies?
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4This is pretty simple: Withdraw cash to be invested in FOREX. Place in burn barrel, add lighter fluid and matches.– Pete B.Jul 13, 2016 at 17:50
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2Just a note - using flowery language does not prove your competence; saying "hydrocarbon-dependant currency" does not show me that you are "basing [your] strategies on fendemental analysis". Also, saying "it works" is suspect - do you mean, what you've done before has won? Because if you have a hard and fast rule that "works", just keep it to yourself and don't stop using it.– Grade 'Eh' BaconJul 13, 2016 at 19:41
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2Finally, don't do this: "I retrospect a number of 1-2 week trends". Well yes, give me $100 and tomorrow's exact foreign exchange movement between 2 currencies every minute, and I'll walk out the other side a millionaire. Just because the movements happened (note, I didn't say "trends"), doesn't mean anyone could foresee them.– Grade 'Eh' BaconJul 13, 2016 at 19:43
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2@quid - TA has a lot to do with investing and trading which are much to do with personal finance and money, and of which there are many questions and answers about on this site.– VictorJul 13, 2016 at 22:10
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3@user44641 - most TA can be used over different time frames and instruments, you'll need to find some that correlate with you FA and then back test them to see if you get a positive expectancy. Make sure you have a written trading plan with proper money and risk management in place.– VictorJul 13, 2016 at 22:25
2 Answers
If I knew a surefire way to make money in FOREX (or any market for that matter) I would not be sharing it with you. If you find an indicator that makes sense to you and you think you can make money, use it. For what it's worth, I think technical analysis is nonsense.
If you're just now wading in to the FOREX markets because of the Brexit vote I suggest you set up a play-money account first. The contracts and trades can be complicated, losses can be very large and you can lose big -- quickly. I suspect FOREX brokers have been laughing to the bank the last couple weeks with all the guppies jumping in to play with the sharks.
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2@user44641 This answer is far more useful than what you're looking for. You're looking for someone to tell you how to calculate (guess) which way FOREX will move. Good luck with that. Jul 13, 2016 at 19:40
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Speaking from stock market point of view, superficially, TA is similarly applicable to day trading, short term, medium term and long term. You may use different indicators in FX compared to the stock market, but I would expect they are largely the same types of things - direction indicators, momentum indicators, spread indicators, divergence indicators.
The key thing with TA or even when trading anything, is that when you have developed a system, that you back test it, to prove that it will work in bear, bull and stagnant markets. I have simple systems that are fine in strong bull markets but really poor in stagnant markets.
Also have a trading plan. Know when you are going to exit and enter your trades, what criteria and what position size. Understand how much you are risking on each trade and actively manage your risk.
I urge caution over your statement
... one weakened by parting the political union but ought to bounce back ...
We (my UK based IT business) have already lost two potential clients due to Brexit. These companies are in FinServ and have no idea of what is going to happen, so I would respectfully suggest that you may have less knowledge than professionals, who deal in currency and property ... but one premise of TA is that you let the chart tell you what is happening.
In any case trade well, and with a plan!