I'm trying to model the distribution of different outcomes of day trading every day for a year. I'm starting with $350 dollars. I'm only doing options trading on Apple stock with a 5% stop loss and a 15% stop gain. And if it doesn't hit one of those stops, I sell before the market closes.
I'm not trying to find a way to control whether I win or lose on the given day, I'm just gonna do my best. But at least in the long run is there a way to use the law of large numbers so that after a year, my average is close to the probability of winning on a given day?
If I flip a coin every day for a year, I can get all heads, yeah, but it's way more likely that I get within 3 or 4 from half heads.
Is there a way to set up my option trade for the day so that it has a specific probability? Or at least on certain days that have certain conditions, will there be a pretty specific probability?
I've tried to learn "the secret to making money on the stock market", but I think for an average joe like me, I'm better off just trying to treat it as much like a coin flip as possible.
And by having certain limits on my orders, I get the impression that a probability can be calculated.