1

I just saw a chart of gold price over the last few decades. Between 1980 and 2000, gold price actually fell, but not at a steep rate. Then suddenly, in 2002-2011, its price nearly decupled (10x).

enter image description here

I'm sure an explanation to this has been offered, but I could not find it based on quick search. The sole explanation cannot be that people panicked because the stock market fell from 2000 onward. While this may be part of the explanation, the price of gold kept increasing at a steep rate even after the dot-com bubble had burst and the stock market started a new rally.

  • @JoeTaxpayer I would reopen. Questions about investing are on-topic. This question is about the price of gold. – Ben Miller - Reinstate Monica Apr 20 at 18:15
  • Ok, Ben, I don’t have strong feelings against, so will defer to you here. And will visit to clean up comments. – JTP - Apologise to Monica Apr 20 at 18:32
4

Since 2007 the world has seen a period of striking economic and financial volatility featuring the deepest recession since the 1930s despite this gold has performed strongly with its price roughly doubling since the global financial crisis began in mid-2007.

Determinants of the price of gold

1. Gold and real interest rates:

One of the factor that influences gold prices is real interest rate which is to some extent related to inflation. Since gold lacks a yield of its own, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases with a real interest rate increase and decreases with a fall in real interest rates.

2. Gold and the US dollar:

The external value of the US dollar has been a significant influence on short-term gold price movements.

The IMF estimated6 in 2008 that 40-50% of the moves in the gold price since 2002 were dollar-related, with a 1% change in the effective external value of the dollar leading to a more than 1% change in the gold price (Source).

enter image description here

3. Gold and financial stress:

It is a significant and commonly observed influence on the short-term price of gold.

In periods of financial stress gold demand may rise for a number of reasons:

  • Steep declines in the value of other assets such as equities and high volatility of asset prices, leading to demand for a more stable store of value uncorrelated with other assets.
  • Fears about the security of other assets such as bonds due to the possibility of default, and even fears about cash if the health of
    the banking system is in question – the fear of systemic collapse
  • The need for liquidity in an environment where it may be difficult to realise the value (or the full value) of other assets. (Source)

enter image description here

4. Gold and political instability:

It is another factor that can boost gold prices.

Investor concerns about wars, civil conflicts and international tensions can boost demand for gold for similar reasons to those noted above for periods of financial stress. Gold‟s potential function as a „currency of last resort‟ in case of serious system collapse provides a particular incentive to hold it in case the political situation is especially severe. (Source)

5. Gold and official sector activity:

The behaviour of central banks and other parts of the official sector can have an important impact on gold prices.

One reason for this is that central banks are big holders of gold, possessing some 30,500 metric tons in 2010, which is approximately 15% of all above-ground gold stocks. As a result, central bank policies on gold sales and purchases can have significant effects, and these policies have been subject to considerable shifts over the decades. (Source)

enter image description here

enter image description here

(Source of above graphs)

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.