I think that I have stumbled upon a good idea for stock trading. In all my simulations, the results were great. It's a method based on technical analysis and momentum. How do I go about selling or patenting my idea OR should I just write a blog about it and let the whole world know?

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    Neither. You should exploit it, and make your fortune. If I had a trading method that was "great," I'd not tell a soul. – JoeTaxpayer Dec 7 '14 at 3:36
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    You cannot patent an idea. You can only patent a physical product. Software is the only notable exception. Regardless - if everyone employs your strategy - will it still work? Most strategies fail once large enough mass of people start using them. – littleadv Dec 7 '14 at 4:17
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    @littleadv - precisely why I'd keep it quiet. – JoeTaxpayer Dec 7 '14 at 4:35
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    Lots of things look great in simulations. The question becomes one of how realistic the simulations were, and how well the strategy holds up when the real world does something the simulations didn't happen to anticipate. I agree with the others: If you really think you've got something, bet your own money on it and prove it, and be sure you can explain exactly why it works and what its limits are. Otherwise it's just another one among thousands of systems that have been proposed for trying to beat the market, most of which turned out to rely on past patterns that did not persist. – keshlam Dec 7 '14 at 5:40
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    I'd be surprised if they talk to you about it. Time is money. If you aren't paying them to review the proposal, and you haven't demonstrated in the real market that it works, why should they spend the time on it? I'm sure they get lots of "why wouldn't this work" notes and most or all of them go right into the circular file. – keshlam Dec 7 '14 at 5:48

If you have a great technical trading system that gets you winning trading 80-85% of the time in backtesting, the question should be why are you not trading it?

To get a better idea of how good your trading system is you should work out your expectancy per trade. This will tell you how much you should make on average for every trade you take.

Expectancy not only considers your win rate but also you win size to loss size ratio. For example if you are getting winning trades 80% of the time but your average win size is $100, and your 20% of losses average $500, then you will still be losing money.

You should be aiming for an average win size of at least 2.5 to 3 times you average loss size. This will provide you a profitable trading system even if your win rate is 50%.

If your trading system is really that good and provides a win size of at least 2.5 times your loss size then you should be actively trading it. Also, if you put your trading system out there in the public domain together with your trading results you will actually find that, quite opposite to what the consensus above is, your results from your trading plan should actually improve further. The more people acting on the outcome of a signal in the same direction the higher the probability that the movement in the desired direction will actually occur.

If you are looking to make money from your trading ideas, no one will pay anything unless you have real results to back it up. So if you are so confident about your system you should start trading it with real money. Of course you should start off small and build it up over time as your results eventuate as per your simulations.

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