My friend is encouraging me to get into futures trading, but before I do I want to understand something.
Is having a better spot predictor than everybody else sufficient to make money in futures?
For instance, if I can predict spot direction correctly X% of the time, and the movement is nontrivial, does it follow that X% of my futures trades will win?
I suspect not, which is why I'm asking. But I'm trying to understand what I'm missing.