I want to choose one broad index fixed-income fund ETF for the fixed-income allocation of my portfolio (because I feel one should suffice). I would like to estimate of course, statistically speaking, my return over a few years of investing in each fund considered.
I can look at MER, the tracking error with the underlying index, etc. I also think taxation on returns should be an influencing factor, but I'm not sure how to account for that when consulting the advertised annualized returns or fact sheets.
(And if that helps to constrain the problem, I'm okay with assuming that past performance of the funds being compared will be a predictor of their future performance.)