Why lease option is so high when purchasing Tesla in Poland?

Question

I am trying to understand what am I paying for when I purchase Tesla based on monthly instalments in Poland.

When I try to pre-order Tesla Model 3 in the US site everything seems simple and self explanatory. Basic model price (in cash) is $48,440. I can choose between lease and loan and:

• Lease option is 36 months * $499/mo + $4,500 down, so $22,464. That's 46% of a cash price (less than a half of the car's value) so I can easily figure out that this is a typical long-term rent and that I am not an owner of the car after three years period ends.
• Loan option is 72 months * $690/mo + $4,500 down, so $54,180. That's 112% of a cash price, so I can also easily figure out that this is a typical bank loan where I have a cash price credited + approx. 10-11% bank provision and that I am car's owner after six years period is over.

So far so good. Things gets a little bit complicated when I do the same on a Polish site.

Cash price is 244,990 PLN and leasing is the only option. However lease option is 48 months * 2,810 PLN + 48,998 PLN down, so 183,878 PLN in total. That's 75% of a cash price.

Am I getting things correctly that over a period of years I am going to pay 3/4 of the entire car's initial value and I will have to return it, because I am not an owner? That sounds like a kind of absurd for me.

Are my calculations correct? If not, what am I missing? Is there any reasonable person out there who would be accepting such a deal?

Paying less than half of a car's initial value for using it over six years is something that I can understand. Paying 75% of a car's value to be able to use if for over four years only is something beyond my imagination.

Answer 1

There are two factors in the leases that you don't show (or don't know): The residual value (how much you'd have to pay to keep the car after the lease period), and the effective interest rate. I don't know what interest rates are in Poland, but if they are higher than the US that would certainly account for the higher total amount.

I think your analysis is too simple - you're effectively borrowing the value of the car, minus the down payment. The total amount that you pay relative to the initial value will go up the longer the loan, all else being equal. In other words, the longer you make payments, the more interest you'll pay and the more you'll pay above the amount that you borrowed. So you should expect to pay more for a 4-year lease than a 3-year lease, relative to the initial value.

Leases are generally the most expensive way to operate a car. You're essentially renting the car for the lease period - you can't sell the car without buying out the lease. It's unfortunate that it's the only way to get a Tesla where you're at.

Also note that with the 6-year loan., you are the owner from day one. You can sell the car to anyone you want with no restriction, other than to pay off the loan with the sale proceeds.

Answer 2

You calculated 75% of the cash price for a 4-year lease in Poland, vs. 46% of a cash price for a 3-year lease in the US. But if you calculate a theoretical Polish 3-year lease it comes out to 59% of the cash price.

This is not so far off from the US price. Higher leasing costs in Poland may be attributable mainly to higher inflation and interest rates as well as more uncertainty about interest rates and inflation for the Zloty vs. the US Dollar, over the next 4 years. From Tesla's point of view, what is the cost of the currency hedge they must purchase (in Euros or USD) to hedge the stream of Zloty payments that you would make?