I was poking through this paper (yep, one source only!).
As I understand it, it says that publicly traded US REITs in general don't seem to track US housing prices, once you control for some basic things that it's pretty easy to get exposure to. Just from the eye test, comparing a housing price index to a few countrywide real estate ETFs and REITs, it looks like they somewhat track housing prices but maybe track the S&P more. (I didn't compare to other things like rental income, tax stuff, etc).
Assuming you agree with all that, I was wondering whether (or under what circumstances) you would expect similar behavior from real estate crowdfunding platforms. As a layperson, my presumption would be that
- different assets (crowdfunding, public REIT, actual property, etc) will be in different market segments and stuff;
- there are lots of different kinds of assets offered by crowdfunding platforms;
- however, all other things being equal, the crowdfunding platforms would be relatively more insulated from the general sorts of things that push on both the S&P and publicly traded REITs/ETFs;
- so maybe the returns to crowdfunding platforms would approximate the returns to buying property more closely than publicly traded REITs.
Does that seem right? If you think the answer depends on a few important factors, what are those factors?
I'm thinking about the US, but other places are interesting too.
I see a few questions here on real estate vs REITs. I think they're relevant to my question but don't quite address it, since (if I'm not mistaken) most crowdfunding offerings are kind "in between" REITs and property.