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Exchange rate of EUR/RUB and USD/RUB on Forex and Moscow Exchange seem to be considerably different and the graphs don't even look similar after some point:

  • EURRUB_TOM / MOEX: 118.99
  • USDRUB_TOM / MOEX: 105.00
  • EURRUB / FOREX: 131.46
  • USDRUB / FOREX: 122.36

Which one should I consider the one closer to reality, as in which price should I expect the actual banks to base their exchange rate on? What is the reason for this discrepancy?

P.S. I'm new to all this, I've just created an account TradingView to see the graphs, I don't know how all this usually works. I'm just trying to understand what's going on.

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    What’s your goal here? Obviously you shouldn’t expect the market for Rubles to function predictably/normally right now.
    – quid
    Commented Mar 9, 2022 at 5:29
  • @quid As I've said in the postscriptum, my goal is to understand what's going on today and where it's heading tomorrow. As unpredictable as this is, there should be some logic behind it.
    – Athari
    Commented Mar 9, 2022 at 6:24
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    The logic is that there’s no or unpredictable liquidity in the Ruble because essentially no one can just go get them from Russia right now because Russia is being unplugged from financial markets so the pricing is going to be pretty wild and non homogenized. There is no “correct” chart right now and speculating in currencies is a recipe for disaster when there isn’t a war and broad reaching sanctions, so this would be extreme risk in an already extremely risky market.
    – quid
    Commented Mar 9, 2022 at 7:49
  • Forex dealers closely relate to international institutional systems. There's retail Forex, FCN Forex, and institutional Forex. ir.cboe.com/sites/cboe-ir-v1/files/cboe/news-and-events/…
    – S Spring
    Commented Mar 9, 2022 at 16:06
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    That changes the context of the question a lot. Generally, people asking FOREX questions here are hoping for some single sentence trading advice. It's my understanding (which isn't actually saying much) that domestically Russia has put a floor on value of the Ruble, and I've also read that domestically Russians can't exchange currency right now. I know there are always ways around like that, crypto exchanges actually being a good one, if you can get money to one. These situations are hard to see through, unfortunately the foreseeable future is turmoil.
    – quid
    Commented Mar 10, 2022 at 0:32

1 Answer 1

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The MOEX price has been frozen when the MOEX exchange was last operational. It is not current. Trading there has been suspended to prevent panic runs until the new normal settles in.

The FOREX price is the actual valuation given to the currency on exchanges where it is actually being traded. It is current, but the trading volume is probably considerably lower than normally.

Crypto exchanges show a price in between the two, but closer to the FOREX valuation.

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