Suppose I want to know "if I want to make a 30% return on the stock market, how many years should I expect to wait?"
I know the real answer is "it depends - if the market does horrible it could never happen, or it could happen in a single year". But I want to ignore bubbles and crashes since I'm a long term, passive investor.
Are there any rules of thumb such as, "on average, after 5 years you will start to see a return of 1%, after 10 years 5%, after 30 years 10%"?
It seems like with a bit of math (confidence intervals etc.) you could derive this info. Has anyone done this already?