Is there a way for a private individual investor to bet on Japanese Government bonds interest rate going up in the coming years?

  • Do you mean like Intrade style?
    – user4127
    May 1, 2012 at 15:23

2 Answers 2


When the interest rate of a bond goes up, the price of the bond goes down

So, to bet that the interest rate going up, you just have to short the bond itself.

For that, you have to find a broker that allows you to trade Japanese government bonds.

I don't want to advertise any broker in particular, but I know that AvaFx allows you to trade Japanese governement bonds.


Found something here: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/bonds/japanese-government-bonds-the-best-trade-ever-52926

I do not have time (yet) to read, understand and summarize the strategy, nor do I endorse it. The title is indeed hyped. I just posted the link for those who are interested in the subject. Feel free to update my post with a summary, or propose a better answer.

  • I think the drive-by downvote was because you just posted a short answer with a link. Better to quote some (but not all) of the relevant text from the article, so the answer can stand somewhat alone, plus give people a clue what they're going to find at the link. May 1, 2012 at 14:19
  • sorry, that was me, and I got myself pulled away before I commented. the reasons Chris said are accurate, plus the fact that it's labeled "The best trade ever" is just icing. ick / hype.
    – user296
    May 1, 2012 at 16:15
  • @fennec Agreed. I read the article (hyped title), posted March 2011. It was a strategy based on JGB (Japanese government bonds) futures, with the assumption that rates wouldn't fall much more, since they were only 1.5% then. Bad move. Read comments by folks who were underwater in the trade in following months. Does it make sense now though? Maybe, but I want to see an explanation why, not just a URL. But one down vote was enough, so I'm just leaving this overly long comment ;o) May 6, 2012 at 1:03
  • I understand downvotes when there are better answers, but in the absence of any input mine is (IMHO) a tiny step in understanding. May 7, 2012 at 11:18
  • The premise of the article is plausible, but the credibility of the author was undermined for me by this: "The yield on the ten-year JGB fell from 6.75% in November 1989 to below 1% in 2010. That's a capital gain of 53% on top of 20 years of interest income of 6.75%." If it's a ten-year bond, how do you get 20 years of interest from it? May 9, 2012 at 5:48

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