I receive a recurrent paycheck in a foreign currency, which in my case is USD. Right now, I immediately convert it to EUR, which is the currency I live with.

Say I receive recurrent payments of 5000 USD: do I have any strategies for getting the best out of the conversion to EUR, in the short term (1 or 2 months)? Are there best practices?

  • Are you aiming to fix your future exchange rates at the current exchange rate?
    – Flux
    Aug 3, 2021 at 9:43
  • That could be a possibility, but if I understand it right for that strategy to work I would have to "foresee" that the rates will go either up or down. If I don't have any of that knowledge, isn't fixing my future exchange rates at the current exchange rate just delaying the problem? (Just asking, as I know nothing about this)
    – user110995
    Aug 3, 2021 at 9:54
  • Could you deposit your pay into an account where the account is in USD then exchange it to EUR when either you needed the money or the exchange rate was favorable? This is apparently common enough that one bank actively advertises such accounts in many currencies - wise.com/us/borderless/euro-account#coverage
    – Freiheit
    Aug 3, 2021 at 19:13
  • @Freiheit Thanks, in fact I do use that bank. I just don't know how to determine the right time of doing the exchange, within a reasonable timespan. Does it make sense to look at the forex indicators?
    – user110995
    Aug 4, 2021 at 11:16
  • If you're tied to the services of that specific bank then I think you need to look at their listed exchange rate PLUS any fees rather than a generic market indicator. If your bank is offering a more favorable exchange rate than when the money went in you will get ahead a little bit. If its worse and you need the money, then you lose out. The banks fees may override any gains you make by playing the exchange rate too.
    – Freiheit
    Aug 4, 2021 at 13:55

1 Answer 1


No. Unless you can predict whether it will go up or down, on average you'll have the same amount of EUR no matter whether you exchange it now or later.

If you predict the conversion rate will go up you can wait until it goes up and if you predict it will go down you can exchange it now before it goes down. Even if you do predict it'll go one way, you could be wrong, but assuming you predict correctly more than half the time, you'll make a profit by following the prediction.

But if you don't have any way to predict whether it'll go up or down - which is most of us - then it's basically a coin toss. You have a 50/50 chance of getting more or less, so on average it doesn't make a difference.

  • Thank you. I guess I will rely on the law of large numbers :)
    – user110995
    Aug 4, 2021 at 11:17

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