I have a state subsidized health plan through Covered CA (California, US). My income fluctuates quite a bit from year to year, but I always do my best to guess what it will average out to be, and if I'm a bit off I've never really paid attention to what it did to my taxes. But this year is different because I have unrealized capital gains right now that are several times larger than my actual income, and depending on if I end up selling my assets by year's end, I could have a VERY different income than if I don't sell them this year. I figure they'll just charge me taxes to recover all the subsidy back, but I'm worried that there will also be penalties for having the wrong income on record.
Do capital gains impact my health insurance subsidy? I'm assuming they do, so at the end of the year if my income is way outside of the bracket I placed myself in, what could be the repercussions? I'm considering downgrading my health plan to make it so any subsidies I have to pay back are minimized, but if anyone has any details of exactly what will happen it would help me make my decision.