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There are tons of comparisons between 401(k) and pensions, with the most obvious being the concept of "defined contribution" vs. "defined benefit". This makes them a sort of apples to oranges comparison.

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/02/18/4-reasons-why-a-401k-is-better-than-a-pension.aspx

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattcarey/2017/06/05/5-ways-a-401k-isnt-as-good-as-a-pension

Of course, a 401(k)'s success is determined generally by factors such as the participant's investments, the matching contributions of the company, etc. A pension (to my understanding) is generally far more defined and structured, but not immune from changes (e.g., new laws, bankruptcy, union agreements, etc.)

My question, specificaly, is whether or not there is a standard methodology within the finance industry that can determine what factors would make a 401(k) a better option than a pension, given perhaps a standard set of variables?

While I understand you can do back-of-the-envelope math to do such a comparison, I was wondering if the finance industry has a standardized/objective way of doing this?

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    Better for the employee or better for the employer? Is this about an employee comparing two job offers or an employer deciding which type of plan to offer? – Charles Fox Apr 26 '20 at 5:25
  • Basically, imagine a scenario employer wants to swap a pension for a 401(k), but guarantee "parity" of benefits. "Defined Benefit" vs "Defined Contribution" is an apples to oranges comparison, but I'm guessing that an extraordinarily generous 401(k) could be better for the employee than a pension. Of course, from an employer (or government) point of view, a generous 401(k) would front-load costs that the employer would instead be paying down the road. All I'm asking is if a neutral, industry-standard methodology exists that determines when they achieve some form of parity in benefits. Thanks! – Mike Apr 26 '20 at 15:23
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When is it better? When you are concerned about beneficiaries, and prefer to have long term control of an asset. Mid-2000s, the company I worked for was eliminating pensions. The choice was to get a present value, transferable to an IRA, or to maintain the ‘frozen’ value, in effect knowing what you’d get each month from age 65 till death. Fixed annuities appear to give a higher rate than market because you give up principal in exchange for a guaranteed annual payment. That’s how a pension works. Typically, for a bit lower payment, you can include a spouse. But, the way my wife drives, it seemed a big risk to me. I took the lump sum, but apparently, my presentation to coworkers wasn’t convincing. Most of them stayed with the pension.

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  • I've found that people often find a way to justify what they think is the right choice despite evidence to the contrary. I debate with coworkers every year that a HDHP with an HSA is the better option than a traditional high-premium plan due to the premium savings and company contribution because it might result in a higher out-of-pocket. When in fact, 95% of the scenarios result in a lower cost, often dramatically. So your coworkers might have justified staying with the "safety" of the pension to avoid the risk that their 401(k) would decline. – D Stanley Sep 29 '20 at 1:58
  • I probably need to edit a bit. To clarify there are 2 issues. (a) Giving up an asset on death, when one prefer to leave it to their children or charity. (b) having such a low 'guaranteed' return. I looked, the decision was due the end of 2004, I was 42. That means a long term investing goal. '05-'19 returned 9% cagr. (Glad to hear I'm not the only one. Sorry my insurance doesn't qualify for HSA) – JTP - Apologise to Monica♦ Sep 29 '20 at 11:42
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The common denominator between a 401k and a pension is their 'present value' or simply 'PV' for short. The present value of a 401k is simply whatever it's worth on a given day. The present value of an annuity can be calculated using a present value of an annuity formula. Once you obtain the PV of the annuity, you can directly compare it to the balance of a 401k.

You first calculate the present value of the annuity as of the day it begins, using a period of time equal to your life expectancy. Then you'd do another present value transformation to translate the PV of the annuity on the day it begins to a PV as of today.

Pensions and 401k savings often go hand-in hand, so it's hard to say which is going to be 'better', per se. Pensions, especially COLA-adjusted pensions, despite their high fees are an excellent longevity hedge. 401k's typically have much lower management fees than pensions.

I authored a calculator which performs these sort of calculations and might be of use to you. For example, a $50k pension starting 30 years from now for a 30-year-old that lives to be 100 is roughly equal to $131k today. Their respective impacts on your retirement income would look like this:

pension

no pension

You can experiment and see if a pension would be right for you given your particular risk tolerance, age and life expectancy.

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