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I borrowed equivalent of 71,490 Russian Rubles in 1000 euros, 4 months ago. I have to give this money back in 5 months. The exchange rate for Russian Ruble apparently is going down and now is around 68. This means if I give the money back now I have to give back 1050 euros.

Is there any pattern for russian ruble during the year which tells me during the next months it will probably go up, or it is completely random and no one knows?

In case if the probability of it being worse more than 70%, I will give it back now, or at least half of it now.

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Lower inflation should result in lower overnight bank rates which should result in a declining currency value.

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-economy-vtb/vtb-ceo-expects-russian-central-bank-to-hold-key-rate-at-next-meeting-tass-idUSR4N29G023

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-economy-inflation/russian-inflation-may-slow-below-3-in-q1-says-central-bank-official-idUSR4N29G01L

But the central bank is currently holding the interest rate well above the inflation rate.

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