Consider a company going to be profitable in an year and its stock price will go up. In an year it will make a small leap but not a whole a lot. Is it a good strategy to buy its options right now that expire in year or beyond? Or should you wait until it is showing a sign of profit and then buy its options then. Please consider the scenario of the person can't monitor his portfolio regularly but one or two times every month.


Option premium decay is non linear. It speeds up as time passes. To get a imprecise idea of this, a loose rule of thumb for ATM options is that their value is related to the square root of the time remaining. All other things being equal (they never are), following this loose estimation, for a 9 month put, 1/3 of its value is lost in the first 5 months. Another 1/3 of its value is lost in the next 3 months and the last 1/3 of its value is lost in the last month.

For that reason, option buyers should buy longer dated options (less cost per day) and option sellers should sell nearer term options (more premium per day).

If implied volatility is moderate to low and it's a low/no dividend stock, a high delta LEAP is a good surrogate for the underlying because it has a low amount of time premium as well as low theta (time) decay. It will have almost the same upside potential as the stock and less downside risk.

So if you believe that the stock is a good investment now then a long dated call LEAP would be as well. If you think otherwise then take a pass.


You need to buy the option before the market prices in this potential profit. If all experts now already expect the company to become profitable in a year, it is most likely already priced in and the company reporting a profit will not influence the share value necessarily. However, if the profit that is reported in a year is really slim, while everyone is expecting at least a substantial profit, it might even lead to a decrease of the stock price.

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