I'm trying to see if I understand Iron Condors correctly and how to assess whether or not the risk is worth it for a given set of circumstances.
The maximum profit on an IC is realized when all options in the spread expire out-of-the-money. Since the absolute value of the delta on an individual option is a good proxy for the probability that it will expire in-the-money, can it also be said that the max profit probability on an Iron Condor is indicated by the leg with the highest delta?
So for example, let's say I have an IC where the short put has the highest delta at -0.36. Does that mean that there is a 64% chance all four legs will expire worthless?
Please note, I understand the delta-as-probability assumption has its flaws.