I have a dilemma. Should I go all in and invest my savings in Vanguard indexes such as VTSAX? Or should I play it safe and wait for a recession? The market recovered from the December 2018 drop so I'm wondering if it's a good idea to start investing in a high market.

I always hear that recession is coming. No one can tell when but I want to take a calculated risk rather than blindly putting all of my money in at the peak, hoping that it goes up.

  • 4
    There is always a recession coming.
    – void_ptr
    Commented Apr 27, 2019 at 17:28
  • What is your investment goal? Do you plan on liquidating your assets within a few years of investing? Commented Apr 27, 2019 at 19:11
  • @IllusiveBrian I am a resident alien in US, might be staying in US for next 5-10 years during that time i plan to cashout and leave.
    – 18bytes
    Commented Apr 27, 2019 at 19:25
  • 3
    That’s the problem. Separate from your recession fear, we would offer different advice for a 5 year horizon vs 10. Commented Apr 28, 2019 at 2:14
  • I'm not familiar with any rules in place for what happens once you leave as a resident alien, but if you don't need to cashout when you leave, then I'd just leave it in there for the long haul. Studies have proven even if you put in at the current market top, you'll still do well long-term if you stay in the market. Yes, it is not likely to perform quite a well in the next 10 years as it has the past 10 years but it always goes up long-term.
    – topshot
    Commented Apr 30, 2019 at 13:52

2 Answers 2


Equity and interest rate usually have negative relationship so in an environment of raising interest it is wise to put money in bank and wait for a more suitable time to purchase stock. That time is usually when you see the central bank/fed has an intention to lower the interest or pump money into market.

Another solution of buying indexed fund without considering timing is to buy a portion of your money each year. For example, 10% of your money is invested right now and then another 10% next year,... and following that rule until you disburse out all of your money.

It should be to remember that investing is a longtime story , that is at least 10 years, if not saying dozens of 10-yr, to avoid cycle of economy. If your investing of period is shorter, just some years, you should think about the term of trading, not investing. It is sure that trading is not for common people, it requires time and experience and not for saving money, bearing low risk tolerance.


Ask yourself what your time horizon is for these funds. If you are young, and aren't thinking you need this money for 20-30 years, it may be a good idea to begin a systematic investment into these funds.

I believe Vanguard may have a $3000 minimum on initial investment. However, you can invest smaller amounts of money automatically, monthly, and dollar cost average .

If afraid to lose any money, investing in any type of index fund may not be the way to go


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