It's often advised to buy and keep government bond to protect ourselves against the next upcoming crisis. (For example, in a defensive stock portfolio you can have 50% of stock and maybe 30% of government bond and 20% of gold/silver.)

But I couldn't find historic data on how the US 10 year treasury bond behaved on 2008 crisis. In TradingView you can go back to up to March 2014 and that's all! But we still can see what US10 did on stock drop at the end of 2018. But the value went only from 97 to 103 (from 5th November to 31st December). This is 6% decrease. In the same period, SPX went down from 2774 to 2400 which is a 13% increase.

Is there anything that perform better than the U.S. 10 year treasury bond in case of crisis ? (No, I don't want to short anything. Too much risk.)

Thank you.

  • 2
    Every crisis is different. Past performance is no guarantee of future return. – user Apr 15 '19 at 9:41
  • agree, but I think we can be confident enough that real silver and gold price will increase. This is an example. Government bond also should increase. So even if you cannot have guarantee, you can have some idea – phaxos khor Apr 15 '19 at 9:51
  • Google "US 10 macrotrends". Macrotrends.net provides about a 50 year graph along with recessions superimposed. It also allows export of the raw data though it's not 100% clean. – Bob Baerker Apr 15 '19 at 11:36
  • You might find that FRED (e.g. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01USM156N) data is helpful – MD-Tech Apr 15 '19 at 14:36

You can't hold an investment directly in the "10 year treasury bond". You either buy an individual bond, say a 2007 bond maturing in 2017, or (most commonly) buy a bond fund that buys bonds for some time, then sells them and buys newer ones to maintain a range of maturities.

So the comparison is between an S&P500 fund (I used SPY) and a bond fund of average maturity around 10 years (I used IEF). Here's a link comparing performance during the crisis.

Regarding what performs better than a 10-ish year treasury bond during a crisis, I'd say a longer treasury bond. There are maturities up to 30 years, and they did better during 2008 than shorter maturity bonds. However, those bonds expose you to significantly more fluctuations because of interest rate changes, so I'd avoid them unless you understand their risks.

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