The way I understand economics is that price of the currency represents the strength of one economy against the other, especially in the long term.

Concensus being that Brexit is not going to help British economy, one would expect Pound to drop in value against Euro and U.S Dollar.

However, looking at forex it's the opposite GBP to USD since 2019 in 3 months went from ~1.272 to ~1.318

enter image description here

Same goes for Euro it went down from ~0.9 to ~0.853

enter image description here

Which to me is counter-intuitive.

Why is British Pound months before Brexit is going up against both U.S Dollar and the Euro?

  • Everyone talking that Brexit is being disastrous to Britain who is everyone?
    – quid
    Commented Mar 28, 2019 at 5:57
  • @quid added link Commented Mar 28, 2019 at 6:16
  • 1
    Well if you believe the wikipedia to be accurate and the market movement to be a crystal ball then it seems the market thinks the UK will ultimately remain. The point of my question was to approach information like this with skepticism. There are plenty of people who think brexit is a positive move and will be good for the economy.
    – quid
    Commented Mar 28, 2019 at 6:24

2 Answers 2


The drop in the value of the pound because of Brexit happened in June 2016. All price movements since then are against a baseline price that already takes Brexit into account, and largely reflect markets’ changing views of the likelihood of hard/soft/no Brexit. It’s gone up a bit recently because the chances of ultra-hard (no deal) or hard (May’s deal) Brexit seem to have gone down.

  • +1 when it comes to pricing a stock/commodity/currency, markets account for events ahead of time/in anticipation, not when they actually happen
    – Leon
    Commented Mar 28, 2019 at 7:51

You're totally right that really bad economic news should make these numbers go down. But there are two things at play:

  1. Brexit hasn't happened yet.
  2. These trends play out in the long run, but in the short run there are a ton of factors at play.

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .