0

I just came across the Hurst nominal model for stock trading. Hurst claims 90% accuracy of this method. Does this model actually work?

1
  • The best system is to find a sucker and sell them a system.
    – Philip
    Commented Feb 4, 2019 at 13:51

1 Answer 1

3

The market is a second order problem

What that means is that the market is influenced by predictions and expectations. So if you have a model that predicts the market and any single trader with sufficient capital gets his hands on it, the market will instantly correct for the prediction and thus altering the predicted prices.

An example: If I have a model that predicts a stock price will increase by 10% tomorrow and a trader with sufficient capital gets this prediction. He will buy this stock until he doesn't make profit from it which means until the predicted price of +10% is reached but today. So this means predictions alter the predictions.

Conclusion: No one can predict the market and even if he could he couldn't.

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .