I would appreciate if some trading fundamental analysis expert could please explain me this. Recently I lost basically all my entire life savings, everything i worked for, for over 3 years, waking up daily at 5am. All my money is lost and want to know the solution where and why I was wrong. I am asking for AUDUSD, although similar large consequence was on other symbols too.

So recently Apple's bad results in China effected AUDUSD with large downtrend and I was in uptrend position (because of double bottom pattern) for around two months, praying to go up but it didn't. Obviously Apple is USA company so it should effect symbols (their charts) where USD is either on the left part or on the right part (audUSD) but what I don't understand is the following: there where NEGATIVE news about Apple which means NEGATIVE news about USD too. Since USD is on the right part of trading symbol, this means that consequence on the chart should be the opposite one comparing to the result of event. This is for sure correct so bad news for Apple means bad news for USD, therefore there should be uptrend but major downtrend occur. My first, out of two, questions is: WHY? How is this possible? AUD, i assume so, cannot be effected on this event (negative news for Apple) but why downtrend if USD is on the right side? It should be uptrend.

Second question: Would you please kindly forward me to some learning resources (links, ebooks,...) or event consultants where could I learn what affect has particular event on what trading symbol? I would like to learn as much as possible about how parameter A (event A) could affect symbol B. Example: I made another very large loss on USDMXN downtrend position when around three months ago some Mexican institution stopped airport construction. I don't know if they stopped continuation of construction or start of construction. Just because in description of event was mentioned name of the country (Mexico) it was easy to understand that this could affect trading symbols that have either on left or right part of the symbol MXN (i lost the money anyway because i know nothing about events but i traded patterns). But if name of the country was missing in event description article, I would have no idea to which symbols is it related to. So in this second question, I am asking where could I learn more about which event has effect on which symbol... I am not economist and going through thousands of economy books would take decades... Please kindly forward me to some resources, consultants, etc.

Thank you in advance and happy, healthy new year.

  • Before you spend effort on better understanding forex trading, you should learn how to do a reasonable allocation between high-risk+reward and low-risk+reward investments. You don't need to avoid high-risk investments completely... but having more than a fraction of your savings in high-risk is an absolutely horrible idea. To start, I suggest trading with 3% of your portfolio and keep the other 97% in something ordinary like a target date fund of index funds. After you have learned the hard lessons, you could consider slowly increasing toward 15% in high-risk / high-reward. – Ben Voigt Jan 6 at 6:01

The drop in AAPL on Jan 3, 2019, was enough to affect several major US stock indices.

The falling stock market led many investors to move into bonds, increasing US bond prices and reducing US bond yields.

Falling US bond yields tends to drive international investors away from investing in US bonds, leading to a falling US dollar.

On Jan 4, the overall US stock market bounced back considerably, even if AAPL did not. This pulled money back out of bonds, increasing yields. Which brought international traders back to the dollar.

Here you can see how bond prices (represented by the BND ETF) are negatively correlated with the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) and with AUDUSD over the past 5 days:

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The event you're asking about isn't in the earlier chart. Here it is in a chart that doesn't skip times when US markets are closed:

enter image description here

Here, I also compared other currencies. It's interesting that JPY and AUD had much bigger reactions than EUR or GBP. Maybe this is related to those countries being in the middle of the trading day when the AAPL announcement was released. Maybe it's totally unrelated to AAPL. At any rate, you should probably re-think your assumption that this was a USD movement and not a AUD (and JPY) movement.

  • We are talking only about four elements: Apple company (their situation in China), USD currency, AUD currency and AUDUSD currency pair. There is nothing about indices, bonds. I apologize and although would like to say thank you for your reply but I don't understand you. I agree that bad news for Apple, regardless if in USA or China, means bad news for USD. The reason for this is because Apple is USA company and in USA local currency is USD. But currency pair was AUDUSD so bad thing for USD should cause uptrend since USD is on the right ( !!! ) side of currency pair symbol. and (nextComment): – Puppy00 Jan 5 at 10:06
  • I don't understand why did it cause further downtrend? You told me that my assumption for the reason why USD felt is incorrect. The reason was NOT that Apple got bad news but lack of investments into USA bonds which caused USD to fall. Regardless if my ''incorrect reason'' or your ''correct reason'' really caused it, the fact is that USD felt so AUDUSD should be uptrend. Why downtrend? – Puppy00 Jan 5 at 10:06
  • What downtrend are you asking about? I see audusd down on Jan 3 and up on Jan 4. You're following it more closely than I am so maybe you're asking about some specific few hours on one of those days? – The Photon Jan 5 at 15:50
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    extremely big drop at the evening (gmt timezone) on 2nd Jan that made, my huge losing position, billion times more worse and destroyed my trading account. I am trying to learn what i did wrong so i won't be repeating the same failure again. Unfortunately everything i learned so far, regarding this ultra-mega giant loss (i lost over 2 years of monthly salaries work in job!), is that USD has positive correlation with Chinese ecomonics meaning Chinese has negative impact, AUD has negative impact too. But i don't understand what i already asked (usd bad news should be uptrend on audusd, why down?) – Puppy00 Jan 6 at 1:03
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    Per this, 'the Australian Dollar suffered some of the largest intra-day losses in its history amid a “drought of liquidity and a cascade of computerized sales.”' Sometimes the reason for a move is just "markets be crazy", and all the stories we tell to try to explain movements are just after-the-fact rationalizations when nobody really knows why the market moved like it did. – The Photon Jan 6 at 1:42

The company suggested that a revenue decline was due to a slowdown in China. A better viewpoint is that the company was simply facing more competition in China and that there was no new news on China.

But the idea of a sharp slowdown in China hit the currency markets very hard. Currency traders with the better viewpoint could have just waited for the currency market to recover.

According to a Forex chart, the January 02 spike-down in the Australian dollar was about 3.6% . A Forex account would have needed about 6.6% margin deposit to keep from having the position closed-out by the spike. Or otherwise, where was the stop-loss set ?

But the Australian dollar does move according to China economic reports because Australia exports to China. Basically to trade currencies the trader must use a source that has a daily calendar of economic reports. A big risk, as is seen here, is an unexpected report.

  • where could i see which event is affecting which trading symbols' charts (original question)? Kindly note please that 95% of trend moving (as a consequence) events are NOT even mentioned on economic calendar regardless of impact level. One, out of tens of billions of events that could have happened, could be happening, or could happen in the future is: Yacht designing expert could bring new design idea to X country. They would make a deal there to start designing new yacht before construction. Such event would never be mentioned on economic calendar. Original question remains... – Puppy00 Jan 5 at 10:11
  • Specialize in which currency pair is traded to have the best chance of keeping up with all the fundamentals and correlations. Currencies are affected by economic reports, by politics, and by news. The trader is the expert on the position. Now an investor on the other hand diversifies but is widely diversified. – S Spring Jan 5 at 15:51
  • Oh, the OP might be looking for a news-service-with-trading-signals on the currency-pair. – S Spring Jan 5 at 16:44
  • S Spring thank you again for reply. No, i do NOT want/need any signals. I am asking you where could i get learning resources or consulting service with large and quality lists of what news events are affecting which currencies? E.g. Event1 may have the consequence on symbol1 and symbol2. So i am looking for large list of ''relationship'' data between events and affected symbols. And of course: how can i know if event really has effect on chart? – Puppy00 Jan 6 at 1:06

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